Fifteen years ago, products moved from manufacturers to consumers with little scrutiny of the boxes, bags, and wrapping that made commerce possible. Today, packaging sits at the center of boardroom discussions and global sustainability debates. This fundamental shift from operational necessity to strategic imperative demands a change in approach by the industry.
At AMERPEN’s Annual Summit for members, Ciaran Little, VP of global consulting in the information division at Smithers, presented recent data that should make every packaging professional sit up and take notice: By 2050, global packaging demand will nearly double, driven primarily by population growth. At the same time, the packaging industry should expect changes driven by demographics, sustainability, and e-commerce.
Expanding beyond traditional packaging sectors
U.S. policy challenges and broader global trends reinforce why the industry’s strategy must evolve. Smither’s data on shifts in population and consumer demand informs the industry’s future plans, whether it’s new products or new markets.
By 2050, global birth rates will decline, while median age and life expectancies will increase, creating new consumption patterns by smaller families and a larger elderly population.
The numbers tell the story: Healthcare packaging will see the fastest growth, driven by an aging population, increased demand for pharmaceuticals and medical supplies, and rising disposable incomes. Industrial/transit packaging currently is and will remain the largest segment globally, followed by food, beverage, and other consumer packaging.
Smithers
In terms of format, board packaging currently holds the largest market share (32% of global sales), however, flexible packaging will grow faster than other formats from 2028 to 2050.
In the U.S., food and beverage packaging is often the focus of attention, given that consumers interact with it daily. But think about the last time you bought a refrigerator for your kitchen, a toy for a child’s birthday, or a printer for your home office. All that packaging—the box, those inserts, the wrapping—every piece of it may generate fees, depending on which state it’s sold in. The fridge, toy, or printer manufacturer may not even realize it is about to become subject to packaging compliance requirements.
Engaging on sustainability
The same goes for the professionals behind the packaging. We’re discussing topics that were not on our radar five or 10 years ago, and these conversations are extending beyond government affairs departments.
Product engineers must make decisions now on the materials they use and how packaging is designed that could trigger financial penalties or market access restrictions in years to come. Internal teams driving corporate sustainability goals need to recognize how these targets may, or may not, be aligned with or impacted by laws on the horizon. External teams need to develop closer relationships with waste management companies and recovered material end markets to understand how their packaging can become valuable feedstock once recycled or composted.
Finally, commercial teams can leverage this knowledge from other teams to build collaborative relationships with customers, leading to sustainable growth for all.
In addition to delivering recyclable and compostable packaging, there’s the growing interest in refillable/reusable packaging, which represents about 4% of the global packaging industry, according to Smithers. This option will gain ground—global sales will reach $53.4 billion by 2027, up from $42 billion in 2022—but it will not be a mainstream solution given consumers’ desire for convenience and challenging logistics.
The intersection of growth and sustainability-linked knowledge building, increasingly driven by policy, prompts change.
Accelerating change
E-commerce has completely changed how we shop for and package products. Mobile phones are nearly ubiquitous, and consumers can now buy anytime and anywhere. This obviously is a huge business opportunity, but smaller, more frequent orders shine a spotlight on sustainability. Shifting toward recyclable, returnable, and lightweight formats will be crucial for complying with regulatory mandates and addressing environmental concerns from consumers.
Smithers
According to Smithers, corrugated cases will continue to dominate e-commerce packaging and are projected to maintain their leading position, capturing 83% of the global market by 2029. This sustained growth stems from their versatility across diverse product categories, strong recyclability capacity, and generous surface area for brand marketing and messaging. However, flexible packaging will post the fastest gains, winning on lightweighting ability and cost efficiency for suitable SKUs.
Within e-commerce, we see more opportunities to support the broader retail packaging industry. Take, for example, the apparel sector, which is poised to represent roughly a third of the global e-commerce market by 2029. Clothing, footwear, and accessory companies may not yet be attuned to policies that will be impacting them as their need for packaging increases in the future. Packaging will play a more consumer-facing role than in years past for this sector, which will invite greater scrutiny by consumers.
Understanding the impacts of packaging policies
In the U.S., more legislation is being passed that relates to packaging itself or how the consumer will dispose of it, creating a patchwork of local and state policies that will have far-reaching consequences for a wide variety of stakeholders. Increasingly, these new laws result in added complexity and higher costs within the supply chain.
Packaging operates in an intricate, interconnected system. It is often manufactured in one state, shipped to a distributor in another, and sold to consumers in yet another. Lawmakers often aren’t aware of the complexity of our global and interstate supply chains.
These new laws have a strong likelihood of increasing costs throughout the supply chain, whether from extended producer responsibility (EPR) fees, higher raw material costs, or R&D investment to design new, more sustainable products. The C-suite and investor community are taking note and are having to determine how these changes play a role in strategic planning, return on investment, and risk mitigation actions.
Creating the path forward
The packaging industry is transforming at unprecedented speed to meet changing consumers and their preferences. Policymakers are increasingly engaged, attempting to balance support for their constituents and the planet. We must work together to create a path forward that benefits us all. PW
Lynn Dyer, Executive Director, AMERIPENAMERIPEN
