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COVID-19: The Tipping Point for eCommerce & Packaging Implications

New consumer shopping behaviors, sustainability and returns are just some of the changes Covid-19 has accelerated for shipping products direct to your door.

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The following is a transcription of an Innovation Stage presented Wednesday afternoon, November 11, during PACXK EXPO Connects.  Watch the discussion here until March 31. 

Hello, my name is Lisa Carlson and I'm a director of insights to innovation for Georgia Pacific Packaging and Cellulous. Today I am joined by Marie Heath, our director of supply chain, and we are both recording from here in Atlanta, Georgia. If you have any questions throughout this session, please feel free to use the chat box, to connect with me and Marie. We appreciate you tuning into join us as we take a look at the impacts of COVID-19 on the state of e-commerce, some of the challenges it has posed on supporting supply chains and begin to frame up what that could mean for your packaging for today, and in the future. To set the stage, I would like to take us back to 2019, a year when things were seemingly much less complicated. In 2019, e-commerce represented 10.7% of total US retail spending, over $585 billion, of which Amazon represented approximately 37.7% of the market share. From a growth standpoint, e-commerce was being led primarily by food and beverage, consumer goods and the health, beauty and wellness product categories.

            Many traditional brick and mortar retailers had created online e-commerce offerings to satisfy a small, but growing percent of their customer base, looking to engage online rather than in-person. Direct brands, those brands who are digital natives and started with e-commerce at the center of their business models, leverage their maniacal focus on the consumer experience to continue to drive disruption across all product categories, from apparel and fashion, to home and appliances. However, for many traditional businesses, given the relatively small percent of total sales that e-commerce represented, the e-commerce sales channel was less than a sub-optimized state with high costs, fractured fulfillment models and fragmented consumer experiences. As we will all remember for a long time to come, on March 11th, 2020, the World Health Organization, officially characterized COVID-19 as a pandemic. The shock to global economies in the businesses, supply chains and consumers that drive them is one that we will feel for many years to come.

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            Arguably, one of the most heavily impacted facets of the economy was and remains today the e-commerce sales channel. In just four months e-commerce grew to represent 16.1% of total US retail spending. Underlying trends that were accelerated in the e-commerce space due to COVID included growth in the total addressable market for e-commerce and thus new customer acquisition. And these were driven by an increase in digital connectivity across generations, as digital holdouts, especially older generations were forced to adopt some increased level of digital connectivity to stay connected during quarantine and to fulfill basic needs such as groceries and filling prescriptions. In addition, online retailers adopting alternative financing methods such as buy now, pay later increased financial accessibility to both large and small ticket items across socio economic divides within e-commerce, but traditional product categories seemingly lost their defining attributes and became known solely as essential or non-essential with some essential products growing at unprecedented rates in modern retail history. Traditional brick and mortar retailers were challenged to engage with their customer base in an entirely new manner, both online and in-person.

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From a consumer experience perspective, many traditional brands seem to have adopted a renewed vigor in creating a true omni-channel experience for consumers moving forward. What previously represented a small portion of e-commerce sales for many businesses became a lifeline. Subsequently, we have seen businesses taking a hard look at their supply chains to redefine what good looks like in the post COVID world. So where does that leave us as we move into the next normal of e-commerce? While the future is unknown and unknowable, we can look to some of these underlying trends that were greatly accelerated by COVID to help us frame up where we are going. Some projections have e-commerce continuing to grow off the new baseline established during COVID with this year's online holiday sales projected to increase 25 to 30% year over year. The prolonged period associated with COVID has enabled consumers to fundamentally adapt their shopping routines to the convenience of e-commerce, from getting groceries delivered by a third party app, to buying materials for home renovation projects online and picking up their order at the retailers curbside, as easy as if they were driving through at a fast food restaurant.

 While essential and non-essential terms have already started to fade, the product categories and retailers that carried essential products were forced to rapidly experiment, test and deploy new offerings to support the burst in e-commerce demand, redefining near-term consumer expectations. While economies continue to reopen, the role of traditional brick and mortar engagement has significantly shifted for the consumer experience. Consumers will continue to reward retailers and brands focused on experiential in-person engagement that helps bridge the gap between the digital and physical shopping. The push versus pull purchase dynamic paired with increased competition drives demand volatility across retailers that challenges the foundation of lean supply chain. E-commerce further shifts the purchase power from retailers and brands into the hands of consumers. With increasing competition, now more than ever, to win in e-commerce is to win with consumer experience.

            Differentiation in the e-commerce channel is one that can be a costly undertaking and quickly commoditized by competitors. A few examples of this include free and expedited shipping and returns, special shopping days, such as Amazon's Prime Day, Target's Deal Days and Walmart's Big Save Event, advanced digital engagement from easy checkout with digital wallets, to trying on products digitally. As online retailers become more advanced in understanding these shifts and consumer expectations, the true challenge becomes how to cost-effectively deliver. I'm going to turn it over to Marie to share a bit more on the impact of e-commerce on the supply chain and delivering those solutions.

Marie Heath:

Thanks Lisa. Hello everyone. My name is Marie Heath and I'm the director of customer supply chain at Georgia Pacific. So let's talk a little bit about how COVID-19 and consumer shift to e-commerce have impacted us from a supply chain perspective. Let's first talk about real estate and distribution network strategies. When we think of a distribution network, most of us envision large regional distribution centers that are strategically placed in densely populated regions of the country. These large locations are high in volume and generally support deliveries across a large geography. Maybe there are three or four locations nationwide. However, as Lisa mentioned, COVID-19 and the rapidly expanding e-commerce channel, isn't just changing the way we live, it's also forcing significant changes across the supply chain. The era when warehouses and distribution centers were designed to simply meet the demand created by sales for retailers has evolved into a complex technological infrastructure servicing today's rapidly expanding e-commerce space.

            The market has shifted as retailers changed the way they use real estate. State ordered closures have led to traditional storefront retailers buying warehouse properties. And sellers who have closed their brick and mortar locations are shopping for additional warehouse space for overflow storage. The combination of these shifts and strategies are further boosting the already high demands for industrial real estate. At the same time, uncertainty around availability of necessities has created volatility and demand for many companies, which in some cases is forcing them to hold more inventory to accommodate the unpredictable needs of the consumer. While some say the pandemic has caused the industrial real estate market to go soft, the shift to consumer buying moving to e-commerce has instead created a frenzy of industrial real estate purchases as more retailers are pivoting to e-commerce and revisiting supply chains in order to fight for survival, while brick and mortar retail remain stagnant.

            With more customers shopping online, one of the biggest changes in consumer expectations comes in the form of next day delivery. In order to keep up with this trend in demand, retailers have begun utilizing storage for online fulfillment. They're now reserving floor space for order staging areas and reallocating store labor to online order fulfillment. E-commerce companies are also beginning to take advantage of vacated mall complexes and repurposing them for regional fulfillment, especially in dense urban areas. With this shift in behavior, we must continue to adopt an adapted network strategy. One that focuses more on customer experience rather than just the bottom line. Given the growing number of smaller regional fulfillment centers, transportation companies are also working to adjust their behaviors. While heavy duty truck sales continue to climb as they have for decades, medium duty sales are not just rising, they're skyrocketing. Carriers are also beginning to rethink tractor purchases, opting for fewer full-size sleepers, as the trucking business is becoming more short haul oriented than ever before.

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