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December 2012? Don't sweat it, but expect the business world to be different

We are living through an inflection point for both history and economics. Within two years we will know if the Mayan calendar accurately predicted the end of the world (forecast to be Dec. 21, 2012) or if the sun will continue to rise at the start of a new 25,695-year Mayan cycle. By Dec. 21, 2012, we also will know if the recent up-tick in economic activity will have been a precursor to more predictable, stable markets or if it is a simple head fake and the new demand curve is way below the level suggested by a Dow index of 9,800.

Personally, I am betting on both.

With my Mayan hat on, I believe the world as we knew it here in the U.S. will not return to the robust, conspicuous-consumption levels seen over the past 15 years. I believe capacity will be harshly rationalized in many categories, with the most inefficient suppliers at each step in the supply chain being forced out.

These dislocations will be painful, particularly as communities that rely on single, large employers watch those employers fade. I believe our country and consumers need to “de-lever,” or reduce debt, as fast as possible. I am more optimistic about the consumer’s ability to reduce personal debt than I am about our country’s ability to deal with growing federal and state deficits. This problem is real.

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