PMMI: leading indicators suggest growth will accelerate mid-2012

A quarterly economic outlook from PMMI advises to expect sluggishness through the first and second quarters, with the pace of growth picking up mid-year.

Economic growth is continuing slowly, and according to PMMI's "Quarterly Economic Outlook: Planning for 1st Quarter 2012," this slow pace will pick up mid-year and will continue to accelerate in 2013.

The quarterly report describes the economy as realigning itself post-recession, and notes that businesses and the U.S. economy are on more secure footing today than at the time of the 2008 financial collapse. Data that point to upcoming economic expansion include:

• Upward growth of the U.S. Leading Indicator

• The Purchasing Managers Index has dropped, but still is above the midpoint of 50 — a growth indicator

• Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders (without aircraft) is expanding, but slower than a year ago.

• Retail sales slowed in the last half of 2011, but remain positive, showing 2.4% growth over a year earlier

• Corporate bond prices, money supply, and stock prices are all rising.

The report also analyzes six important market segments: Pharmaceutical & Medical Devices; Personal Care; Beverages, Coffee & Tea; Chemicals & Cleaning Products; Consumer/Commercial Industrial Durables, Hardgoods, Components & Parts; and Food and Food Preparation.

PMMI Quarterly Economic Outlook reports are produced by the Institute for Trends Research for the benefit of PMMI Members. The reports, and supporting webinars, are available to members at no charge.

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